Upstate leaders and thinkers gaze into the crystal ball, with bold and surprising predictions
The late business author and management consultant Peter Drucker once said that predicting the future is like driving down a dark country road with your headlights off while looking out the back window. All we have to go on is history, and while the Upstate has seen some challenging years, there were some promising milestones along the way in 2013, giving plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the road ahead in 2014.
With that in mind, UBJ asked some Upstate visionaries what highlights – and challenges – they expect to see this year and beyond.
Kevin Landmesser, interim president/CEO, Greenville County Area Development Corporation
Despite continued economic uncertainty, both at home and abroad, the U.S. as a market has remained relatively stable and thus more attractive than some other global locations. With that we have seen a high percentage of inquiries and investment from foreign corporations. In addition, much of our activity has been automotive, related to BMW’s continued growth. The other reassuring sign is that a larger portion of growth this year was expansions by existing industry. We believe these trend areas – foreign, automotive, and existing industry investment – will continue in 2014.
Julie G. Brown, owner, Godshall Professional Recruiting and Staffing
We expect to see Upstate companies continue to increase hiring in 2014. Our expectations are that job opportunities will be good in the service industry, including financial and professional services. Health care should remain very steady with allied health professionals in strong demand. The information technology sector has been very hot over the past year or two and we expect to see increasing needs for developers and project leaders with high acumen. Sales roles became more prevalent during the fourth quarter of 2013 and we expect steady demand. Overall, companies in the Upstate recognize the value of top talent and are employing additional assessments to ensure the right long-term fit. I believe that moderate growth across most sectors will be the phrase that fits 2014.
Robert Hughes, project manager, Hughes Development Corporation
Downtown Greenville is going to continue to be the most desirable place in the region to live, work and play. The return of national retailers to Main Street in 2013 signifies not only how far downtown has come, but also what to expect in the future. With substantial office, residential, retail and hotel development planned for 2014 by local and regional developers, expect to see more and more projects off of Main Street and continued interest from national brands not already in the market. The two biggest challenges to all of this development will be the availability of financing and locating anchor tenants for larger projects.
Patty Bock, economic development director, City of Spartanburg
The downtown of Spartanburg will continue to grow and prosper as others look into their crystal balls and see that Spartanburg is a city hot for investment opportunity. Newly enhanced streetscape designs help set the stage and create an environment conducive for mixed-use office, residential, storefront retail, arts and entertainment.
The public and private sectors will work together to attract new white-collar businesses, including the entrepreneurial and creative classes that currently tend to favor urban environments. A couple projects of significant prominence will provide additional fuel to the economic engine for downtown revitalization.
As the downtown enjoys this vibrant growth, we must be deliberate and intentional to properly position the city for a new workforce, residents and visitors.
Challenges will also include ensuring that the designs of future projects are integrated and complement the existing downtown, remaining creative to ensure good projects go forward, and renovating beautiful but vacant historic buildings for occupancy.
R. Arthur Seaver Jr., CEO, Southern First Bank
At last count, the FDIC reported that Greenville County supported 34 different banks in its market. While that number creates tremendous competition, the Greenville market is indeed blessed to be served by great banks and great bankers. The regulatory challenges faced by all banks makes the service we provide more difficult and complex. Our industry will continue to deal with change and you will likely see more disruption in the names of financial institutions in Greenville. I also believe that you will see great bankers in the Greenville market who continue to passionately serve their clients and this great community.
Minor Shaw, chairwoman, Greenville-Spartanburg Airport Commission
In 2014, Greenville-Spartanburg International Airport (GSP) will continue its role as an essential part of the economic development landscape of Upstate South Carolina.
Historically, GSP has had an annual economic impact of just over $817 million.
2014 marks the beginning of the second full year of WINGSPAN, a $115 million terminal renovation program projected to deliver a $164.1 million total economic impact to the community.
During 2014, as a part of WINGSPAN, we will see the opening of the new baggage claim area, the installation of 700 feet of a glass façade, the opening of the north wing and the start of renovations in the core of the terminal. GSP will also welcome new vendors including Dunkin’ Donuts, Thomas Creek Grill and RJ Rockers Brewery.
Although airline mergers and the continued evolution of TSA present challenges, the GSP leadership team is committed to providing exceptional air service to the citizens of the Upstate through our focus on the retention and the growth of existing service and the recruitment of new service.
We appreciate the support of the citizens of Upstate South Carolina and look forward to an exciting 2014.
C. Dan “Danny” Joyner Jr., president, Prudential C. Dan Joyner Realtors
There are many positives to report with respect to the residential real estate market in Upstate S.C. Home sales are expected to remain steady and home prices are expected to continue to rise through the end of 2014. Housing starts are beginning and demand currently far outweighs supply, which is a very real concern; we really need more inventory.
As for the challenges that lie ahead, Fritzi Barbour, BIC of our Pleasantburg Drive office, said, “The challenges will be the unknown economic impact of government regulations: Qualified residential mortgage rules, changes to deductions related to real estate, the National Flood Insurance Program changes (possibly delayed) and the Affordable Care Act in the coming year. That and the post-Bernanke policy at the Fed all could affect us in untold ways.”
Overall, though, we expect the Upstate to continue to enjoy good job growth, industry expansion, and continued strong economic development. All of which contribute to a healthy housing market.
Earle Furman, chairman, NAI Earle Furman
In 2013 we saw the start of new construction in the industrial market for the first time since 2005, along with the addition of more than 400,000 square feet of downtown office space and the introduction of new national retailers such as Brooks Brothers and Anthropologie. The Upstate’s commercial real estate market and the community as a whole will see this upward momentum and growth continue in 2014 and during the years to follow.
As Greenville and the rest of the Upstate enjoy continued growth, we have to be prepared to compete on a global level on every front, particularly in regard to economic development, workforce recruitment and retention, and education. Another challenge will be to maintain the characteristics that have always made our community charming and so appealing, while continuing to pursue and embrace new growth and development opportunities.
Seabrook L. Marchant, owner, the Marchant Company
Greenville is still a great place to live, as evidenced by the continuing positive press we receive listing Greenville in the “Top Five” in many categories. Much of the housing crisis is behind us. Interest rates for mortgage loans are still very attractive. Foreclosures continue to drop, which can only help to stabilize the market. Most of the major area employers are seeing an increase in business and hiring new employees. The apartment market is strong, with many new units scheduled to come on line in 2014. We are seeing a renewed interest from investors and developers who have been sitting on the sidelines for some time.
Some challenges: Banks’ resistance to “speculative” lending; increased regulations; Obamacare; uncertainty in new mortgage lending guidelines; a shortage of buildable lots; and trying to plan in an uncertain political environment.
Nick Sabatine, CEO, Greater Greenville Association of Realtors
2013 certainly was an exceptional recovery year for the residential real estate market in the Greater Greenville area. It was our strongest market since 2008, with sold figures surpassing 2008 totals by a wide margin. We are at the point where we can drop the word “recovery” and get back to using the term “real estate market.” We are not where we were in 2006-2007, but the residential real estate market may never see those figures again.
2014 looks to be much the same as 2013, with a steady, solid growth supported by recent economic and jobs data exceeding expectations. Homebuyers are still seeing low mortgage rates, affordable prices and a recovering economy.
Challenges to the housing market in 2014 include concerns regarding health care, and issues surrounding the National Flood Insurance program. Retention of the Mortgage Interest Deduction is essential to keeping the housing market strong.
Brian Young, senior vice president, managing broker, Cushman & Wakefield Thalhimer
Over the next two to three years, we expect to see an unprecedented amount of new projects ranging from retail, to multifamily to office to industrial. Consider just the CBD area: There are four hotels; two high-rise and two low-rise apartment projects; and an office building that have been reported to commence construction in 2014 downtown (potentially nine new buildings that will modify our skyline). Consider the suburbs and there are several additional multifamily developments that will commence; there are also four separate industrial spec projects that will be under construction in 2014 totaling over 300,000 square feet. There are also over 1,000,000 square feet in build-to-suit projects out in the market, all of which would potentially begin construction in 2014.
In general, we are extremely excited about 2014 and the opportunity it brings. Interest rates remain low, buyers remain optimistic and inventories for available space continue to tighten, all of which is good news for the real estate industry. It’s a very exciting time to live, work and play in Greenville/Spartanburg.
Adam Anderson, owner and CEO, Palmetto Software Group
It has been crazy year for us over here at PSG. We needed to be closer to the “action” so we moved to downtown Greenville, upstairs from our friends at Dark Corner Distillery on Main Street. After extensive sampling of their product and learning to appreciate banjo music throughout the day, we realized that the economy was turning around and people were buying cybersecurity products and services once again! Huzzah! The trend towards “security intelligence” our crystal ball saw last year came true!
I now predict with great authority that 2014 will be a time of explosive growth for my industry as traditional service-based contracts migrate to security as a service and we leverage local business partners such as Immedion’s data centers to provide cloud security offerings at a fraction of the cost.
Roger Newton, president and general manager, Bon Secours Wellness Arena
In 2013, with the support and assistance of the Greenville City and County councils, we were able to secure over $13 million to improve our arena. We completed phase one of the improvements in 2013 and plan to complete the remainder of the improvements over the next two years. The 2013 improvements were highlighted by a new center-hung scoreboard, a 360 ribbon board and remodeled suites. The 2014 improvements will include a new roof, a new sound system and a remodeled concourse.
Secondly, for the first time in the 15-year history of the arena, we have a new naming rights partner. In September we were proud to announce that Bon Secours St. Francis Health Systems had secured the naming rights for the arena for the next 10 years.
Our future challenge will continue to be competing with the larger arenas and markets in the Carolinas for concert business. The amphitheater concert business will continue to grow as more and more major acts have positive experiences at the venue. Our 2014 arena renovations will result in an even more inviting facility for our building users and our guests to enjoy events.
The concert business will continue to be unpredictable and cyclical. With more hotels and meeting space being built in the central business district, downtown Greenville will continue to grow as a tourism magnet for the region. Our reliance on social media will become an even more important method of communicating with our guests.
We will continue to be a major player in the development of the downtown and in particular in the North Main Street district as we seek opportunities consistent with our strategic plan and our core business of sports, entertainment and conferences.
Deb Agnew, owner, Ayers Leather Shop
I am very positive about the balance that developed in 2013 among the different sectors that share downtown. You have the retail and the office, from financial services to lawyers, but now you also have a lot of customer service places popping up like dentists and insurance agents downtown. There’s still the wonderful base of restaurants offering affordable food to the high dollar.
I can’t see anything negative on the horizon. There’s going to continue to be continued growth. We’ve learned to work around the frustrating problems of construction and growth, but we need to just smile. We’re getting there.
I see people beginning to utilize the parking spaces better. They’re not trying to park and stay too long, and the people who are working downtown are finding a permanent space in the lot. People coming for retail are learning to use these wonderful parking garages that the city has provided and they’re not frightening. People are beginning to use what we have been provided. Now we’re a metropolis and we’re learning to use things in an urban manner.
Also, other cities are cutting back on things like festivities, but I expect Greenville to continue to offer those big wonderful events that make downtown great.
Jil Littlejohn, Greenville City Council
One of the biggest challenges I see is growing the minority young professional population within the city limits of Greenville. We have a number of businesses and organizations that continue to recruit talent, but often those individuals relocate to larger cities. Those who stay live outside of the city limits. I’d like to see a wider variety of housing stock similar to the options located outside of the city. In the next few years, I’d like to see an increase of minority population in the city.
Nika White, vice president of diversity and inclusion, Greenville Chamber of Commerce
I am starting to see how minority businesses are strategic engines for helping to create economic development and to add to the vitality of the overall area. At some point in time there wasn’t a lot of focus on accelerating minority-owned businesses. I think that the Chamber has been catalytic in creating that greater participation.
I feel like I’m sensing a movement that’s unique in this area. I don’t think we’d seen this area get behind initiatives like this before. People are getting more thoughtful in general about the value of diversity and inclusion. People will move from having conversations about it to figuring out how to really move this body of work forward. It’s on people’s minds, and it’s on their radar for the right reason. People new to this space are realizing they can’t just throw tactics at it, but they’re being strategic in order to not just initiate the work but make it sustainable.
Our MBA (Minority Business Accelerator) program is an example of that, and through the 17 businesses that have been selected we’re starting to see some early returns just in the perception of the value they bring to the area. We may start to see some results from that. In one year it’s ambitious to think it’s going to be significant, but we just want to see some progress. We hope that minority businesses will not have to look solely outside of this area for business, that they’ll have more available to them.
Adela Mendoza, executive director, Hispanic Alliance
Like many internationals in the Upstate, I am used to living immersed in various cultures. What makes Greenville my chosen home is its ability to evolve and embrace new people and ideas. I am particularly optimistic about our progress as a community in the area of inclusion. We are taking meaningful steps towards engaging the outstanding diverse talent and assets that our Upstate communities are fortunate to have. We are experiencing a shift from ideas to action and from wanting to be inclusive to appreciating the competitive advantage that diversity brings to all sectors.
A great example is the partnership between United Way of Greenville County and the Hispanic Alliance of SC, which is a new model of collaboration engaging diverse partners to lift and strengthen undeserved communities and create opportunity through education and access to essential resources. The rapid growth of the Hispanic population has challenged many of our current systems, but it has also brought great talent to the Upstate. Our ability to embrace new perspectives will help us build a promising future for everybody. There’s no better way to experience and honor our communities in 2014 than rolling up our sleeves and leveraging our collective strengths to turn challenges into opportunities.
Eric Dodds, managing director, The Iron Yard
Next year we will see more fruit of years spent on wearable tech and physical devices connected to the Internet. We will also see continued increases in mobile Internet usage as the cost of both smartphones and Internet access continues to decrease around the world (Android devices will have a large share of that growing market).
Increasingly, local tech economies will grow and great startup companies will emerge from places other than Silicon Valley, NYC and Boston. Hopefully, we will also see positive shifts in education as traditional institutions struggle to provide cost-effective and up-to-date training in a world where almost all information is free and inexpensive online courses abound.
Matt Dunbar, managing director, Upstate Carolina Angel Network
In early-stage investing, we are reminded often of the overconfidence bias we bring to predictions about the future. So with that caveat in mind, here are five educated guesses about what’s on the horizon in 2014.
First, you will begin to see many more advertisements for private investment opportunities based on new general solicitation rules enacted by the SEC this fall. Second, equity crowdfunding will be legalized sometime in the middle part of the year, allowing anyone (not just the wealthy) to buy stock in private companies (and driving more ads). Third, investors will be attracted to organized angel groups like UCAN to help navigate the chaos that will ensue in the marketplace for a few months. Fourth, UCAN will help launch the South Carolina Angel Network to help support early-stage capital infrastructure across the state. Fifth and most importantly, entrepreneurs will continue to identify opportunities, take risks and create great companies – and although some will win and many will lose, the net result for our economy and our lives will be undoubtedly positive.
Hayne Hipp, cofounder, Liberty Corporation
Courageous collaborative leadership will determine Greenville’s future just as it does today. This courage to address in a positive way Greenville’s political barriers, partisanship, regionalism and intolerance, breaking down those silos of arrogance that block progress, will continue to make Greenville special. Some people pick up a newspaper and sigh. Others pick up a newspaper and then pick up the telephone and make things happen. Greenvillians are telephone picker-uppers.
Our problems are manageable and solvable. By the nature of its definition the status quo doesn’t budge until leaders shove and holding on to that status quo doesn’t get us there, doesn’t move Greenville forward. As long as we have frank, candid and civil discussions about who we are and where we are going, the future for our families and businesses is bright indeed.
