Positive growth projected for SC, Upstate economies

Positive economic growth is projected in South Carolina for 2026, especially in the Upstate region.

TD Bank released its state economic forecast in March, reporting an expected 2.5% growth in South Carolina’s economy this year. Factors contributing to the strengthening economy include the investment pipeline and population growth in South Carolina.

Demetrius Johnson, mid-South metro retail market president with TD Bank, said Upstate South Carolina, anchored by Greenville and Spartanburg, remains one of the strongest growth stories within the Southeast market, outperforming the broader state.

Capital investment in manufacturing, automotive, aerospace and energy sectors continues to strengthen the local economy. Recent examples Johnson gave include GE Vernova expanding its Greenville production capacity and Isuzu North America building a $280 million plant in Piedmont.

“Hiring and investment is definitely accelerating in 2026,” Johnson said. “Overall, the conditions do remain strong and improving business confidence.”

South Carolina economic growth vs national average

According to TD Bank, South Carolina experienced a temporary economic slowdown in late 2025 with job losses across several trade-exposed sectors. Despite this, the state’s job growth has been stronger than the national average year on year.

Unemployment has also been trending higher in recent months, both for South Carolina and the Greenville-Anderson-Greer metropolitan statistical area. The metropolitan statistical area consists of Greenville, Anderson, Pickens and Laurens counties.

According to TD Bank, the state’s unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in January 2025 to 4.8% in December 2025. The unemployment rate in the Greenville metro also increased from 3.9% to 4.8% during that same period.

“The unemployment rate…has risen modestly, not because jobs are disappearing but because the labor force is expanding faster than jobs are being created,” Johnson said.

Johnson explained that TD Economics predicts the unemployment rate will tend lower after 2026.

Population growth remains strong across South Carolina, driving the state’s labor force expansion. New population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show that the Greenville metro reached 1,014,101 residents in July 2025. According to TD Bank, South Carolina’s population growth is expected to lead the Southeast region in 2026.

TD Bank has also found that more people are moving to South Carolina from other states rather than from abroad. Johnson explained that the state’s strong domestic migration is an advantage as immigration continues to decline nationwide.

Anticipated challenges for 2026 include housing affordability strains as the Upstate continues to grow. Johnson said constraints will occur if the housing supply does not keep pace with population growth.

“Home building in South Carolina and Greenville specifically remains on better footing relating to the pre-pandemic 2019 levels to the national average,” Johnson said. “Inventory remains tight at 3.7 months’ supply, but home price growth has recently turned positive.”

According to TD Bank, Greenville County saw a 2.5% change in home price growth in February 2026, compared to 6.9% change in February 2025. South Carolina experienced a 1.6% growth change in February 2026, down from 4.6% in February 2025.

Overall, Johnson said that South Carolina is expected to emerge as one of the most resilient states for business in 2026. For more information on TD Bank’s 2026 State Economic Forecast, visit economics.td.com/state-economic-forecast.