The top 10 builders are contributing to 70 percent of home sales in the Upstate and the region is experiencing slow but steady economic growth despite a dip in overall job growth.
Those were the major takeaways at the sixth annual Upstate Housing Market Forecast hosted by the Home Builders Association (HBA) of Greenville earlier this week.
The HBA annual forecast offers predictions for new home construction and remodeling expenditures locally, regionally and nationally. It also includes economic trends and analysis of the homebuilding industry and consumer preferences, as well as analysis of government policies that affect housing.
“This is among the most well attended HBA meetings of the year,” said Rick Quinn, president of the Home Builders Association of Greenville. “The information presented is valuable not only for those of us in the housing industry, but for anyone who is interested in how housing trends affect our overall economic health.”
Dr. Joseph Von Nessen, professor of economics at the University of South Carolina and a research economist at Resh Marketing Consultants, was the featured speaker at the event attended by representatives from area banks, homebuilders and building suppliers.
Von Nessen told the group that South Carolina’s economy is “recovering and rebuilding” and that the economic growth and economic stability are positive even while the rate of economic growth is slowing.
Over the past 12 months, the Upstate has seen a decline in employment that has led to the slow economic growth, mostly due to manufacturing job announcements declining.
“This isn’t a bad thing per se,” said Von Nessen. “It was inevitable.” The Upstate has a strong automotive and manufacturing cluster and “clusters don’t just pick up and move like individual companies do,” he said.
Housing in the Upstate had a major turnaround in 2012 and 2013, and construction activity only lags behind that in the leisure and hospitality group, Von Nessen said. In the past year, the Greenville/Spartanburg area has seen a 32.8 percent gain in housing starts. Greenville is actually beginning to build momentum while Spartanburg is seeing a little sharper decline, but overall stability is rising, he said.
Von Nessen also pointed out some areas that homebuilders should watch out for. “The labor force has been fairly flat since 2009,” he said, but added that many people who may have given up during the recession may come back into the job market as things pick up.
He also said it’s important to keep an eye on the European recession, noting that South Carolina is one of the top exporters to Europe and “their economy impacts South Carolina’s economy.”
Most of the top 10 builders contributing to 70 percent of home sales in the Upstate are bigger, national companies that were able to sustain the economic downturn, Von Nessen said.
