Retail experts weigh in on the trends just ahead
The Upstate is exploding with new apartments and housing – which means the tsunami retail explosion is just around the corner.
After all, those new residents need somewhere to shop. Magnolia Park is well under way, a new Bass Pro Shop is in our future, and just last week we learned the Greenville News site downtown will become a bustling retail center.
What else can we expect to see in the future? What stores do we need or would we like to see? What are the trends in retail right now? We asked local retail experts to weigh in.
Jimmy Wright, Principal and Broker, NAI Earle Furman, and Tommy Molin, Senior Associate, CBRE provide discussion on the evolving retail market in the Upstate.
What top five retail brands does Greenville and the Upstate NOT have yet that you would like to see? Why would they be a good fit?
Wright: For apparel – Lululemon Athletica, Urban Outfitters, H&M and Saks Off Fifth. In the home furnishings space; Ikea, Crate & Barrel, Restoration Hardware and The Container Store. Regarding food, I would like to see Cheesecake Factory, California Pizza Kitchen and Biscuitville.
Our area would benefit from any of these regional retails, and we have the market to support regional apparel retailers who offer something different and provide consumers with more choices.
Molin: Field and Stream, West Elm, Gander Mountain, Sprouts Farmers Market, H&M. These are all retailers that cater to the strong demographics that the Upstate provides. The region is poised for long-term strong growth and is one of the most important areas for a retailer to consider when opening locations in South Carolina.
With Magnolia Park filling in, what’s the Upstate’s next big hot spot for retail?
Wright: Haywood Road and Laurens Road corridors have strong core retail, particularly Haywood Road around the mall, and both areas also have space that can be redeveloped for power centers and undeveloped land for new construction, which make them good candidates for retail growth.
Molin: Magnolia is just one piece of the retail development puzzle in the Woodruff Road area. There is a significant amount of under-used real estate that was part of the land owned by Hollingsworth, including areas around CU-ICAR and the Verdae Development. Twenty years from now those areas are going to be very different and retail will be a significant component of the development that occurs.
Do you see areas of Greenville becoming distinctive – i.e. Augusta Road maybe more high-end retail like South Park in Charlotte or the Village of West Greenville like NoDa? Why and how?
Wright: Greenville has pockets such as Augusta Road, downtown and West Greenville that show retail trends, but they’re not as distinctive as Charlotte’s submarkets, but that’s OK. Our market is set up differently, and there is a constant evolution to the retail market.
Molin: While Augusta Road definitely caters to retailers that have a niche among the wealthier residents who shop there, there’s not a critical mass of development to make the corridor take off for ultra-high end retail. I think the comparison that people like to use is that of King Street in Charleston. I don’t expect any region of the Upstate to hit that level of retail development, as I do not envision the area becoming a playground for the wealthy that Charleston is. On a go forward basis, with all of the development occurring in downtown Greenville, I would envision Main Street being the destination of choice for retailers catering to the wealthiest demographic in our market.
What type of retail is lacking in downtown? Across Greenville? Across the Upstate?
Wright: Our market supports a lot of restaurants and has necessary retail, but we have an opportunity to grow our apparent retail offerings across the Upstate. Beja-Fleur is a great example of a retailer that created an additional, niche offering, and the market has responded positively and has supported their growth.
Molin: The Upstate features a population that is growing and increasingly more active. Retail that caters to active consumers will do well. Additionally, the market is of interest to more high-end retailers and grocery stores. We expect to see more of those retailers in the coming years.
In the next two-five years, what do you see as far as retail trends in our area?
Wright: We anticipate the grocery store market picking up again as our population continues to grow and fill in areas that were once perceived as too thin. Additionally, as income levels and correlating disposable income continues to increase, we will see more apparel retailers come to the market.
Molin: While the retail sector has changed since the Recession, we see a continuation of old trends as well as the emergence of new ones. First, just as before the Recession, we see the most prominent development occurring in larger shopping centers where grocery stores are the anchor. A new trend that is having an impact on the market is the reduction of footprints among users, as well as the blurring of lines between online and brick-and-mortar stores.
Do you see any mixed-use, outdoor retail developments on the horizon? If so, where would be the best spot for it?
Wright; Mixed use retail where people can live and work has been very successful, and we’re seeing more and more of that in Greenville. The Greenville News site has plans for mixed use, and County Square is the next site where large retailer components would make sense.
Molin: I know some in the industry have predicted that the open-air lifestyle center was dead as several projects struggled coming out of the Recession. The reality is that the open-air concept provides reduced CAM for tenants and greater tenant flexibility for the landlord. The fact that these kinds of projects are still well received by the public means we will eventually see some of this type of development in the Upstate. As far as a location, that is difficult to say, but I could easily see a center with strong tenants succeeding as a part of re-development along Laurens Road or potentially on the outskirts of downtown.
What are your thoughts on the retail changes along Augusta Road? What’s good/bad about what’s been done so far and what is coming up?
Wright: Personally, I think the changes represent a healthy evolution for the submarket. The new CVS is an example of a positive change. The corner will be cleaned up, there has been a spin-off development across the street, and the space where CVS will vacate will allow one or two new retailers to join the corridor.
Molin: In the long run, I have a hard time seeing Augusta Road seeing significant changes in terms of major retail development, although I could see the expansion of Main Street with more mixed-use development on a smaller scale than what has been completed downtown. We are already seeing some of this type of activity with the development of Southridge by the Beach Company and the redevelopment of the Claussen Bakery by The Furman Co.
What do you think about the mix of restaurants on Augusta Road? Too many, not enough?
Wright: There are a lot of fast casual restaurants and some high-end dining options on Augusta Road, but the area could benefit from more relaxed dining where people can hang out and have a drink and possibly stay for dinner if they want. The Local Taco is a good example of this, but we need more options like this.
Molin: Augusta Road has numerous barriers to entry but the most prominent one is the lack of commercial sites available for development. The redevelopment of Lewis Plaza will provide a much-needed boost for the retail demand in the area. We do anticipate more restaurant retail in that corridor, but there is not a lot of real estate to use for major new developments.
